European Union Application and Research Center
A New Crisis Area in the European Union Migration Policy: Afghan Migrants
Following the Syrian crisis, recent political turmoil in Afghanistan has once again brought the possibility of mass migration to the agenda of the European Union (EU). This situation has caused panic among EU member states on one hand, and on the other, it has brought the issue of cooperation with neighboring and transit countries to the forefront. Afghan migrants, who accounted for 10.6% of the 471,300 asylum applications made to EU member states in 2020 and ranked second, became a new migration crisis concern after the Taliban took control of the country in August 2021.[1]
Background of the Developments in Afghanistan
The year 1979 witnessed the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan, a development that marked the end of the détente period of the Cold War. Following the invasion, the Soviet Union enabled the return of exiled Communist Party leader Babrak Karmal and facilitated his takeover of the government. Within the Cold War dynamics, the United States supported the Afghans fighting against the Soviets. As a result of these conflicts, the Soviet Union was eventually forced to withdraw from the country. Subsequently, under the guarantees of the United States and the Soviet Union, the Geneva Accords were signed between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the guarantor states agreed not to interfere with the sovereignty of the parties involved.[2]
By 1996, the Taliban had captured Kabul and maintained control of the country until 2001. The events in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan during this period constitute part of today’s concerns among the Afghan population. The Taliban banned women from attending school or work and restricted their ability to leave their homes. During this period, the Taliban allowed Al-Qaeda to operate within Afghanistan, despite being unrecognized by the international community. In response, the UN Security Council imposed an arms embargo on Afghanistan due to the Taliban’s refusal to hand over Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.[3]
After the terrorist attacks against the United States in 2001, U.S. President Bush took action against those responsible and authorized retaliatory operations against the Taliban. As a result of these attacks, a new government was established in Kabul, and the Taliban regime ended. Subsequently, while the United States launched a reconstruction initiative similar to the Marshall Plan, NATO took over the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan on 11 August 2003 to ensure security.
Following the killing of Bin Laden in 2011, debates began under then-President Obama on the necessity of the U.S. military presence in the region. The withdrawal decision initiated by Obama was decisively continued by Trump and eventually implemented by Biden.
As the United States began its withdrawal from the region on 1 May 2021, the Taliban attempted to fill the power vacuum that emerged. The Afghan Armed Forces collapsed, and the security umbrella implemented under U.S. leadership crumbled following the U.S. withdrawal. The subsequent Taliban dominance in the region triggered the Afghan migration issue. As the Taliban took control of Kabul, many Afghans fled the country, creating scenes of fear and panic — such as people clinging to aircraft wings or wheels and families handing their babies over fences to foreign soldiers.
The European Union’s Approach to the Taliban Regime and Afghan Migrants
After the Taliban seized control, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell stated that efforts had begun to evacuate EU personnel in the country, along with Afghan nationals and their families who had worked with the EU. Additionally, the European Commission declared that they did not recognize the Taliban regime and had no political contact with it.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that they would not provide financial aid to a regime that violates the rights of women and children, and highlighted that the Taliban’s behavior would be crucial for future relations. Regarding Afghan migrants, she stated that they were prepared to provide financial support to member states accepting Afghan refugees within their national quotas.
From the migration perspective, Afghanistan ranks second in terms of the number of asylum applications made to the EU. This wave of migration, which mainly targets Germany, Greece, Sweden, and Hungary, is expected to increase after the Taliban’s takeover. In response, Germany has expressed willingness to accept a limited number of Afghans who had worked with its military forces. Hungary, while echoing similar sentiments, stated that it prefers to resolve the problem through aid to Afghanistan.[4]
This crisis has become a new area of concern for EU member states. As the EU has failed to establish a common migration policy among member countries, it has highlighted the initiation of discussions with Turkey as a solution. For example, the Visegrad countries — Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary — advocate for starting negotiations with Turkey to prevent an influx of irregular migrants and to provide financial assistance in exchange for hosting Afghan migrants in Turkey.[5] Similarly, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz stated that it would be better for Afghan refugees to go to Turkey rather than EU member states such as Germany, Austria, or Sweden.[6]
Therefore, while the EU and Turkey have yet to reach the desired level of agreement on the Syrian refugee issue, they have also been compelled to find a solution to Afghan migration.[7] Christian Democrats in the European Parliament emphasized the responsibilities of regional countries and Turkey regarding Afghan migrants and suggested that financial support could be provided, similar to the Syrian refugee crisis.[8]
Experiences During the Syrian Refugee Crisis and the 18 March Statement
In the migration wave following the Syrian crisis, the 18 March Statement constituted a significant pillar of the EU’s cooperation with Turkey. The agreement included the “1-for-1” mechanism, in which irregular migrants would be returned and replaced by regular migrants, in exchange for €3+3 billion in financial aid and visa liberalization. However, the visa liberalization, which required fulfilling 72 criteria, was not achieved,[9] and the reopening of borders for refugee passage to EU countries strained Turkey-EU relations.