Current Situation of Defense Spending in EU Countries

IKV Assistant Expert Hatice Fulya Topyıldız evaluated the current situation of defense spending in EU countries.

The key points of the report are as follows:

The foundations of a common security and defense policy at the EU level were laid with the 1993 Maastricht Treaty and became operational at the 1999 Cologne Summit. The Common Security and Defense Policy, an extension of the Common Foreign and Security Policy, has allowed the EU to intervene in limited areas such as humanitarian aid, rescue, conflict prevention, peacekeeping, crisis management, disarmament, military support, and post-conflict stabilization. However, it has not created a fully common defense approach. The collective defense commitments of NATO member states have shaped the direction of the EU’s defense policies, creating a complementary framework rather than an alternative to NATO.

The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022 and policy shifts in the United States gave momentum to concrete steps in the EU’s defense policies. Although European defense had long been highlighted in official EU documents, only the emerging security threats of this period paved the way for tangible initiatives. As a result, the “White Paper” was published in 2025, marking the launch of an important process aimed at strengthening the EU’s security and defense capacity.

One of the most critical initiatives implemented after the White Paper was the SAFE Program, which enables member states to increase their defense expenditures. Adopted at the General Affairs Council, the program provides borrowing flexibility for member states and encourages partnership and cooperation in defense investments. Nevertheless, significant imbalances remain among EU members in terms of defense spending. Countries neighboring Russia allocate higher shares of their GDP to defense due to security concerns, while some EU and NATO countries still fail to meet even the 2% target. At the NATO Summit held in The Hague on 24–25 June 2025, the target was raised to 5%, but how realistic this will be remains uncertain.

Within the framework of the SAFE Program, 18 member states applying the national escape clause are expected to increase their defense spending. At this point, Turkey stands out as an important supplier. Turkey’s production capacity in products such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and munitions is particularly noteworthy. However, the SAFE Program includes a provision requiring that “no more than 35% of the estimated cost of the components of the final product in procurement contracts may originate from outside the EU, EFTA-EEA countries, and Ukraine,” which poses a critical limitation for Turkey.

The EU has stated that candidate countries, potential candidate countries, and countries with which the EU has established security and defense partnerships may also participate in joint procurement processes under SAFE. Turkey, as a candidate country, has applied to the European Commission to take part in this process. However, the final decision rests with the EU Council. Bilateral disputes with Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration may lead to veto risks under the unanimity principle. If these obstacles are overcome, Turkey will be able to participate in SAFE projects.

Turkey’s defense industry has experienced significant growth in recent years. Turkish-made UAVs, which were deployed in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the Russia-Ukraine War, have attracted worldwide attention and increased demand from many countries. Turkey’s status as both a candidate country and a long-standing NATO ally makes defense cooperation with the EU more valuable in the long term. Such cooperation could create a positive atmosphere in Turkey-EU relations while also strengthening partnerships between Turkish defense companies and European firms. Furthermore, since the products supported under the SAFE Program include areas where Turkey already produces, Turkish companies could collaborate with European partners on R&D and innovation projects, supported by programs such as Horizon Europe.

In conclusion, Turkey’s potential role in enhancing Europe’s defense capacity positions it as an important actor in the reshaped European security architecture. This could positively contribute to Turkey’s EU membership prospects. However, the accession process remains challenging and complex, tied to progress in political criteria, alignment with EU legislation, and the resolution of issues such as disputes with Greece and Cyprus, as well as opposition from key member states like France and Germany. Nevertheless, joint defense projects and cooperation within the framework of the SAFE Program have the potential to establish a constructive basis for Turkey-EU relations.

For full paper: https://www.ikv.org.tr/images/files/ikv_pn_hatice_fulya_topyildiz_AB%20Savunma_Harcamalari.pdf